How, when, and for what reasons does land use modelling contribute to societal problem solving?

ScienceDirect - Environmental Modelling & Software : How, when, and for what reasons does land use modelling contribute to societal problem solving?

This paper reports and reflects on the contributions of land use models to societal problem solving. Its purpose is to inform model development and application and thus to increase chances for societal benefit of the modelling work. The key question is: How, when, and for what reasons does land use modelling contribute to societal problem solving? Addressing this question, we rely on a synthesis of three studies, reported more extensively elsewhere. Our research experience, as demonstrated by the three studies used as examples, implies that the impacts of using land use models are diverse. These impacts are not limited to learning about a land system, but extend to learning about the views, norms and values of other actors. Also, land use modelling work may enhance mediation of conflicts between stakeholders and contribute to community-building.

Eric Berlow: How complexity leads to simplicity | Video on TED.com

Eric Berlow: How complexity leads to simplicity | Video on TED.com: "Ecologist Eric Berlow doesn't feel overwhelmed when faced with complex systems. He knows that more information can lead to a better, simpler solution. Illustrating the tips and tricks for breaking down big issues, he distills an overwhelming infographic on U.S. strategy in Afghanistan to a few elementary points."

Interdisciplinary knowledge integration through group model building: recognizing dualities and triadizing the conversation

ScienceDirect - Environmental Science & Policy : Interdisciplinary knowledge integration through group model building: recognizing dualities and triadizing the conversation

As part of the inquiry into managing an interdisciplinary research process on adaptive water governance, we investigated the process of group model building (GMB) and, more specifically, the role of Unified Modeling Language (UML) in this process. An analysis of group interaction reveals several tensions in the process of knowledge integration, which can be grouped into three overarching dualities: ‘simplicity versus complexity’, ‘constraining versus containing’ and ‘defining versus refining’. As group members take different positions with regard to these dualities, these represent sources of tension and potential ‘stuckness’ of the GMB. Hence the question arises how the group can manage duality in ways that take the GMB beyond its opposing forces. We suggest that knowledge integration processes may benefit from early recognition of the dualities at hand and strategies aimed at creating ‘thirdness’, including some suggestions on the concrete forms such ‘thirdness’ may take

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Modeling as persuasion: the impact of group model building on attitudes and behavior - Rouwette - 2010 - System Dynamics Review - Wiley Online Library

Modeling as persuasion: the impact of group model building on attitudes and behavior - Rouwette - 2010 - System Dynamics Review - Wiley Online Library: "Client involvement in modeling is expected to change mental models and thereby foster implementation of conclusions. Leading authors have pointed out that a lack of knowledge on the crucial elements of modeling interventions hinders accumulation of research results. There is no clear evidence for the effectiveness of group model building, and a conceptual model linking elements of the modeling process to goals is missing. We propose an integrative conceptual model, drawing on theories of persuasion (mental model change) and the influence of beliefs, attitudes, subjective norms and perceived behavioral control on actions. Our study builds on standard operationalizations and a body of research in social psychology."

Regional Index of Ecological Integrity: A need for sustainable management of natural resources

ScienceDirect - Ecological Indicators : Regional Index of Ecological Integrity: A need for sustainable management of natural resources

An ecosystem is a complex composition of physical, chemical and biological components. This complex system remains in a healthy state if the system can maintain the ecological equilibrium among its components. Anthropogenic disturbances are the prime stressors that affect this equilibrium through creating fragmentation, ecosystem sensitivity, loosening landscape connectivity and disrupting ecological integrity. As different types of ecosystem are interconnected, a comprehensive monitoring and evaluating criteria is needed for measuring its integrity at regional level for conservation planning. A Regional Index of Ecological Integrity can be a suitable approach for sustainable management of regional ecosystem.

Linking modelling, monitoring and management: an integrated approach to controlling overabundant wildlife - Chee - 2010 - Journal of Applied Ecology - Wiley Online Library

Linking modelling, monitoring and management: an integrated approach to controlling overabundant wildlife - Chee - 2010 - Journal of Applied Ecology - Wiley Online Library: "We provide a general and flexible framework for integrated monitoring and culling when the objective is to keep a species’ abundance within control limits. Our framework explicitly deals with uncertainty arising from demographic stochasticity, ecological complexity and lack of knowledge, and provides the foundation for maximizing efficiency and cost-effectiveness of control operations. Our approach could be applied in any instances where control is effected via culling."

ScienceDirect - Ecological Indicators : Modelling land use change impacts for sustainability assessment

ScienceDirect - Ecological Indicators : Modelling land use change impacts for sustainability assessment

Impact assessments usually rely on the DPSIR framework, a framework which assumes a chain of causal links starting with Driving forces(economic activities such as transport or agriculture) through Pressures (e.g. land use change) that impinge upon the States of sensitive receptors. The changes in these states, i.e. the Impacts eventually stimulate political or technological Responses (OECD, 1993). There have been attempts to assess land use change impacts at large scale, mainly for environmental impacts ([EEA, 1999] and [Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2003]), yet, such assessments have initially been tackled only in a qualitative manner as scenarios for future land use at large scale were lacking (Petit et al., 2001). This gap has been partly addressed in the recent years through various research projects ranging from the development of scenario narratives (Hoogeven and Ribeiro, 2007), the downscaling of global change scenarios (Rounsevell et al., 2006) and the design of rule-based land use change models driven by environmental and socio-economic factors (Verburg et al., 2006).

Cumulative Effects Assessment of the North Saskatchewan River Watershed using ALCES | NSWA

Cumulative Effects Assessment of the North Saskatchewan River Watershed using ALCES | NSWA: "NSWA-ALCES cumulative effects assessment project is intended to simulate the effects of major land uses in the watershed (agriculture, forestry, urban, and petrochemical industry) on specific watershed “values” (i.e., biodiversity, landscape integrity, water quality, and water quantity) over a 100 year time span. The assessment evaluated four scenarios of potential development:"

Ecological processes in a hormetic framework - Costantini - 2010 - Ecology Letters - Wiley Online Library

Ecological processes in a hormetic framework - Costantini - 2010 - Ecology Letters - Wiley Online Library: "some non-essential substances or environmental stressors can have stimulatory or beneficial effects at low exposure levels while being toxic at higher levels, and that environmental ‘priming’ of certain physiological processes can result in their improved functioning in later life. These kinds of nonlinear dose–response relationships are referred to as hormetic responses and have been described across a wide range of organisms (from bacteria to vertebrates), in response to exposure to at least 1000 different chemical and environmental stressors. Although most work in this area has been in the fields of toxicology and human health, the concept of hormesis also has general applicability in ecology and evolutionary biology as it provides an important conceptual link between environmental conditions and organism function"

Stochastic models of population extinction

ScienceDirect - Trends in Ecology & Evolution : Stochastic models of population extinction

Theoretical ecologists have long sought to understand how the persistence of populations depends on biotic and abiotic factors. Classical work showed that demographic stochasticity causes the mean time to extinction to increase exponentially with population size, whereas variation in environmental conditions can lead to a power-law scaling. Recent work has focused especially on the influence of the autocorrelation structure (‘color’) of environmental noise. In theoretical physics, there is a burst of research activity in analyzing large fluctuations in stochastic population dynamics. This research provides powerful tools for determining extinction times and characterizing the pathway to extinction. It yields, therefore, sharp insights into extinction processes and has great potential for further applications in theoretical biology.

Population-specific vital rate contributions influ... [Ecol Appl. 2010] - PubMed result

Population-specific vital rate contributions influ... [Ecol Appl. 2010] - PubMed result: "To develop effective management strategies for the recovery of threatened and endangered species, it is critical to identify those vital rates (survival and reproductive parameters) responsible for poor population performance and those whose increase will most efficiently change a population's trajectory. In actual application, however, approaches identifying key vital rates are often limited by inadequate demographic data, by unrealistic assumptions of asymptotic population dynamics, and of equal, infinitesimal changes in mean vital rates. We evaluated the consequences of these limitations in an analysis of vital rates most important in the dynamics of federally endangered Sierra Nevada bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis sierrae). Based on data collected from 1980 to 2007, we estimated vital rates in three isolated populations, accounting for sampling error, variance, and covariance. We used analytical sensitivity analysis, life-stage simulation analysis, and a novel non-asymptotic simulation approach to (1) identify vital rates that should be targeted for subspecies recovery; (2) assess vital rate patterns of endangered bighorn sheep relative to other ungulate populations; (3) evaluate the performance of asymptotic vs. non-asymptotic models for meeting short-term management objectives; and (4) simulate management scenarios for boosting bighorn sheep population growth rates. W"

Do males matter? The role of males in population dynamics - J. Rankin - 2007 - Oikos - Wiley Online Library

 

Models of population dynamics generally neglect the presence of males. While this assumption holds under many circumstances, behavioural ecology increasingly tells us that the presence (or absence) of males may have an impact on female fitness, and hence population sizes. Here we ask the question of whether males matter to population dynamics, operationally defined as a dependency of population growth on the relative density of males. We provide simple models, and evaluate the current empirical evidence for them, that illustrate various mechanisms of such male influence: mate searching behavior, male resource use (including effects of sexual dimorphism), sexual harassment and sexual segregation. In each case, theory predicts that males can have an effect on population densities, and in some extreme cases a positive feedback between an increasingly male-biased sex ratio and female harassment may theoretically even bring about population extinction. The results of this study, and the literature reviewed, show that the males can have a substantial effect on population dynamics, particularly so when human influences result in biased sex ratios.

Do males matter? The role of males in population dynamics - J. Rankin - 2007 - Oikos - Wiley Online Library

New directions in management strategy evaluation through cross-fertilization between fisheries science and terrestrial conservation

Meeting reports:
E. J. Milner-Gulland, Beatriz Arroyo, Celine Bellard, Julia Blanchard, Nils Bunnefeld, Miguel Delibes-Mateos, Charles Edwards, Ana Nuno, Lucille Palazy, Slaven Reljic, Pere Riera, and Tomaz Skrbinsek
New directions in management strategy evaluation through cross-fertilization between fisheries science and terrestrial conservation
Biol. Lett. published online before print July 21, 2010, doi:10.1098/rsbl.2010.0588

On 1 and 2 June 2010, an international meeting was held at the University of Paris Sud XI, France, organized within the framework of the EU FP7 consortium project HUNT, to bring together fisheries and conservation scientists to discuss a unified framework for the future of management strategies for harvested species.

Linking modelling, monitoring and management: an integrated approach to controlling overabundant wildlife - Chee - 2010 - Journal of Applied Ecology - Wiley Online Library

Linking modelling, monitoring and management: an integrated approach to controlling overabundant wildlife - Chee - 2010 - Journal of Applied Ecology - Wiley Online Library: " We developed an integrated Bayesian population modelling and monitoring algorithm to assist with dynamic cull control of an overabundant population. We describe components of the control algorithm and their combination to produce a structured, sequential prescription for implementing control of a kangaroo population. We demonstrate its application within a single management year and evaluate its performance over a multi-year horizon under a range of scenarios reflecting uncertainties about population dynamics."

Mother Pelican ~ PelicanWeb's Journal of Sustainable Development

Mother Pelican ~ PelicanWeb's Journal of Sustainable Development: "The objective of the Sustainable Development Simulation (SDSIM) is to analyze trade-offs between human development and economic development priorities. It is a global model, in the tradition of Limits to Growth and other similar projects. However, it attempts to take into account both material resources, which are limited, and human resources such as human wisdom, which are unlimited. The time window is 1950-2200, and the transition from consumerism to sustainability is expected to happen during the 21st century (i.e., approximately 2010-2100).

SDSIM is a System Dynamics model, and it is programmed in the STELLA simulation language. Links are provided to the STELLA software and an excellent System Dynamics primer. However, it is assumed that the reader is familiar with the System Dynamics method of system analysis and synthesis."

Ecological Census Techniques: A Handbook: Amazon.ca: William J. Sutherland: Books

Ecological Census Techniques: A Handbook: Amazon.ca: William J. Sutherland: Books

Wildlife Demography: Analysis of Sex, Age, and Count Data: Amazon.ca: John R. Skalski, Kristin E. Ryding, Joshua Millspaugh: Books

Wildlife Demography: Analysis of Sex, Age, and Count Data: Amazon.ca: John R. Skalski, Kristin E. Ryding, Joshua Millspaugh: Books:

Introduction to Modeling in Wildlife and Resource Conservation: Amazon.ca: Norman Owen-Smith: Books

Introduction to Modeling in Wildlife and Resource Conservation: Amazon.ca: Norman Owen-Smith: Books: "Introduction to Modeling in Wildlife and Resource Conservation
Norman Owen-Smith (Author)"

IBM Predictive Analytics Software Helps Marwell Wildlife Analyse Data to Improve Conservation Measures for Grevy’s Zebra | TTKN News

IBM Predictive Analytics Software Helps Marwell Wildlife Analyse Data to Improve Conservation Measures for Grevy’s Zebra | TTKN News: "Predictive analytics is playing a key role in helping conserve wildlife in northern Kenya. Marwell Wildlife is conducting a survey on Grevy’s zebra where local nomadic herdsmen are interviewed about their attitudes towards the zebras, what they think the key threats facing them are and where they think they are within this large area. The herdsmen have very good knowledge about wildlife and interviewing them is a very efficient means of collecting information over this vast and inaccessible area.

Marwell Wildlife selected IBM predictive analytics software to help identify patterns and analyse data which will help inform decisions on conservation measures for Grevy’s zebra."

Using learning networks to understand complex systems: a case study of biological, geophysical and social research in the Amazon - Barlow - 2010 - Biological Reviews - Wiley Online Library

Using learning networks to understand complex systems: a case study of biological, geophysical and social research in the Amazon - Barlow - 2010 - Biological Reviews - Wiley Online Library: "Developing high-quality scientific research will be most effective if research communities with diverse skills and interests are able to share information and knowledge, are aware of the major challenges across disciplines, and can exploit economies of scale to provide robust answers and better inform policy. We evaluate opportunities and challenges facing the development of a more interactive research environment by developing an interdisciplinary synthesis of research on a single geographic region. We focus on the Amazon as it is of enormous regional and global environmental importance and faces a highly uncertain future."

ScienceDirect - Biological Conservation : Stakeholder participation for environmental management: A literature review

 

The complex and dynamic nature of environmental problems requires flexible and transparent decision-making that embraces a diversity of knowledges and values. For this reason, stakeholder participation in environmental decision-making has been increasingly sought and embedded into national and international policy. Although many benefits have been claimed for participation, disillusionment has grown amongst practitioners and stakeholders who have felt let down when these claims are not realised. This review first traces the development of participatory approaches in different disciplinary and geographical contexts, and reviews typologies that can be used to categorise and select participatory methods.

ScienceDirect - Biological Conservation : Stakeholder participation for environmental management: A literature review

ScienceDirect - Biological Conservation : The science and application of ecological monitoring

 

We provide a broad overview of the underlying philosophy of ecological monitoring. We argue that the major characteristics of effective monitoring programs typically include: (1) Good questions. (2) A conceptual model of an ecosystem or population. (3) Strong partnerships between scientists, policy-makers and managers. (4) Frequent use of data collected.

We classify monitoring programs into three categories – (1) Passive monitoring, which is devoid of specified questions or underlying study design and has limited rationale other than curiosity. (2) Mandated monitoring where environmental data are gathered as a stipulated requirement of government legislation or a political directive. The focus is usually to identify trends. (3) Question-driven monitoring, which is guided by a conceptual model and by a rigorous design that will typically result in a priori predictions that can be tested.

ScienceDirect - Biological Conservation : The science and application of ecological monitoring

Ecological Modelling : Tradeoffs between forestry resource and conservation values under alternate policy regimes: A spatial analysis of the western Canadian boreal plains

ScienceDirect - Ecological Modelling : Tradeoffs between forestry resource and conservation values under alternate policy regimes: A spatial analysis of the western Canadian boreal plains An important element of resource management and conservation is an understanding of the tradeoffs between marketed products, such as timber, and measures of environmental quality, such as biodiversity. In this paper, we develop an integrated economic-ecological spatial optimization model that we then apply to evaluate alternate forest policies on a 560,000 km² study region of managed boreal forest in Alberta and British Columbia, Canada. The integrated model incorporates dynamic forest sector harvesting, current levels of oil and gas sector development, coarse-filter or habitat-based old forest indicators, a set of empirical forest bird abundance models, and statistical models of the natural and current fire regimes. Using our integrated model, economic tradeoff curves, or production possibility frontiers, are developed to illustrate the cost of achieving coarse-filter targets by a set time (50 years) within a 100-year time horizon.

BioOne Online Journals - Landscapes Shaped by People and Place Institutions Require a New Conservation Agenda

BioOne Online Journals - Landscapes Shaped by People and Place Institutions Require a New Conservation Agenda: "Landscape patterns provide a multiscalar “theater” in which humanecological interactions play out. The regional landscape context in which a new conservation agenda might be developed recognizes the fragmented matrix as a variety of patterns of not just ecosystems but human communities with various private lands or resource tenures, including agricultural and other working landscape elements. Each element of the mosaic influences other elements. Scientists from diverse disciplines are now recognizing that human history and policy are critically entwined with ecosystems and should be examined as social-ecological systems."

CDC - PHIN Communities of Practice - Resource Kit - Home

CDC - PHIN Communities of Practice - Resource Kit - Home: "Communities of Practice (CoPs) are working to strengthen the exchange of electronic information as members collaborate, share, and focus on issues prioritized by the public health community. The Communities provide a participatory environment for members to learn, share expertise, and develop solutions to improve public health’s capacity to use and exchange information electronically.

The Communities of Practice Program (CoPP), in its role of supporting the public health community, developed this Resource Kit to provide members and interested parties with information about CoPs and their function within the public health. The Resource Kit offers a program overview, templates, and guides that can be used to develop a new community or enhance an existing community. Within this kit, you will find guidance for all stages of CoP development—from planning to evaluation!"

ScienceDirect - Biological Conservation : Predicting survival, reproduction and abundance of polar bears under climate change

ScienceDirect - Biological Conservation : Predicting survival, reproduction and abundance of polar bears under climate change

Polar bear (Ursus maritimus) populations are predicted to be negatively affected by climate warming, but the timeframe and manner in which change to polar bear populations will occur remains unclear. Predictions incorporating climate change effects are necessary for proactive population management, the setting of optimal harvest quotas, and conservation status decisions. Such predictions are difficult to obtain from historic data directly because past and predicted environmental conditions differ substantially. Here, we explore how models can be used to predict polar bear population responses under climate change. We suggest the development of mechanistic models aimed at predicting reproduction and survival as a function of the environment. Such models can often be developed, parameterized, and tested under current environmental conditions. Model predictions for reproduction and survival under future conditions could then be input into demographic projection models to improve abundance predictions under climate change. We illustrate the approach using two examples. First, using an individual-based dynamic energy budget model, we estimate that 3–6% of adult males in Western Hudson Bay would die of starvation before the end of a 120 day summer fasting period but 28–48% would die if climate warming increases the fasting period to 180 days.

ScienceDirect - Ecological Modelling : A standard protocol for describing individual-based and agent-based models

ScienceDirect - Ecological Modelling : A standard protocol for describing individual-based and agent-based models

"Simulation models that describe autonomous individual organisms (individual based models, IBM) or agents (agent-based models, ABM) have become a widely used tool, not only in ecology, but also in many other disciplines dealing with complex systems made up of autonomous entities. However, there is no standard protocol for describing such simulation models, which can make them difficult to understand and to duplicate. This paper presents a proposed standard protocol, ODD, for describing IBMs and ABMs, developed and tested by 28 modellers who cover a wide range of fields within ecology. This protocol consists of three blocks (Overview, Design concepts, and Details), which are subdivided into seven elements: Purpose, State variables and scales, Process overview and scheduling, Design concepts, Initialization, Input, and Submodels. We explain which aspects of a model should be described in each element, and we present an example to illustrate the protocol in use. In addition, 19 examples are available in an Online Appendix. We consider ODD as a first step for establishing a more detailed common format of the description of IBMs and ABMs.

Ulysse: a qualitative tool for eliciting mental models of complex systems - Desthieux - 2010 - System Dynamics Review - Wiley Online Library

Ulysse: a qualitative tool for eliciting mental models of complex systems - Desthieux - 2010 - System Dynamics Review - Wiley Online Library

Stakeholders involved in the definition of managerial problems perceive and internalize the complexity of these problems as mental models. These models are not always made explicit, which can lead to misunderstandings and conflicts. This article presents Ulysse, a tool that enables stakeholders to progressively elicit their mental models as causal loop models. Ulysse uses web technologies that store information in a database and interactively display the modeling results. It is based on matrix calculation that facilitates statistical operations and provides better understanding of the model structure. Analysis and comparison of individual models reveal the most important variables and relationships among them as a basis for identifying key issues, divergent and convergent opinions between stakeholders. Ulysse has been tested in the context of regional economic development in Atlantic Canada. The tool was designed to support managers, during interviews, in building qualitative models of indicators

ScienceDirect - Encyclopedia of Ecology : Systems Ecology

 

Systems ecology is the study of the structure and behavior of complex ecological systems using a holistic, or systems, approach. This article provides a brief overview of the general characteristics of complex ecological systems and the general steps of the systems approach. Ecological systems are thermodynamically open, hierarchical, self-organized, and self-regulating. They are complex because they are composed of many interacting components whose interactions are characterized by time lags, thresholds, feedbacks, and indirect effects. The systems approach is characterized by the conceptualization, quantification, evaluation, and application of a model representing the ecological system of interest. This approach, including systems analysis and simulation, is necessary because the cause–effect relationships within complex ecological systems can only be identified by examining the system as a single, functionally integrated entity.

ScienceDirect - Encyclopedia of Ecology : Systems Ecology

ScienceDirect - Encyclopedia of Ecology : Herbivore-Predator Cycles1

 

Terrestrial herbivores often exhibit complex or cyclic population dynamics. Approximately 30% of surveyed animal species and populations undergo population cycles, with a latitudinal gradient in cycle strength found in many mammal populations. In addition to their regularity, these cycles are often synchronous over large geographic areas. The proximate and ultimate causes of these cycles have been examined in many separate systems using both time-series analyses and large-scale manipulative experiments. Time-series analyses can point to the process order of systems, with lower orders suggesting little or no time lags and higher orders suggesting significant (3 years or longer) lags between drivers and population reactions. Manipulative experiments have generally been unable to stop the cycles entirely, but can delay or lessen some of the population crashes in mammals such as voles and hares. The drivers of the cycles vary among populations, but a major trend is that of trophic interactions between either predators and herbivores or between parasites and herbivores. It is only through a mixture of mathematical analysis and experimental manipulation that we can accurately explain how cycles begin, end, and persist over several cycles.

ScienceDirect - Encyclopedia of Ecology : Herbivore-Predator Cycles1

ScienceDirect - Ecological Modelling : Multi-agent simulations and ecosystem management: a review

 

This paper proposes a review of the development and use of multi-agent simulations (MAS) for ecosystem management. The use of this methodology and the associated tools accompanies the shifts in various paradigms on the study of ecological complexity. Behavior and interactions are now key issues for understanding and modeling ecosystem organization, and models are used in a constructivist way. MAS are introduced conceptually and are compared with individual-based modeling approaches. Various architectures of agents are presented, the role of the environment is emphasized and some computer tools are presented. A discussion follows on the use of MAS for ecosystem management. The strength of MAS has been discussed for social sciences and for spatial issues such as land-use change.

ScienceDirect - Ecological Modelling : Multi-agent simulations and ecosystem management: a review

ESA Online Journals - Responses to alternative rainfall regimes and antipoaching in a migratory system

 

Migratory ungulates may be particularly vulnerable to the challenges imposed by growing human populations and climate change. These species depend on vast areas to sustain their migratory behavior, and in many cases come into frequent contact with human populations outside protected areas. They may also act as spatial coupling agents allowing feedbacks between ecological systems and local economies, particularly in the agropastoral subsistence economies found in the African savanna biome. We used HUMENTS, a spatially realistic socioecological model of the Greater Serengeti Ecosystem in East Africa, to explore the potential impacts of changing climate and poaching on the migratory wildebeest (Connochaetes taurinus) population, the fire regime, and habitat structure in the ecosystem, as well as changes in the size and economic activities of the human population outside the protected area.

ESA Online Journals - Responses to alternative rainfall regimes and antipoaching in a migratory system

SpringerLink - Environment, Development and Sustainability, Online First™

The Arctic is a region of the world experiencing extremely rapid climatic and social change. Indigenous communities have faced similar challenges for millennia and have historically demonstrated remarkable resilience to socioecological perturbations. In contemporary contexts, however, it appears that the pace and extent of change is overwhelming the adaptive capacities of many indigenous communities. Scholars recently completed a survey of living conditions spanning the circumpolar Arctic to quantitatively document the impacts of social and ecological stress across regions. The database they created is called the Survey of Living Conditions in the Arctic or SLiCA. This article explores the utility of using this dataset to compare livelihood systems across three sub-regions of Alaska and four sub-regions within the Chukotka Autonomous Okrug of the Russian Federation. The results point out that livelihood systems in Chukotka have a substantially lower level of sustainability than in Northwest Alaska due to the high prevalence of vulnerable households

SpringerLink - Environment, Development and Sustainability, Online First™

Multi-Scale and Multi-Temporal Analysis - Environmental Social Science: Human-Environment Interactions and Sustainability - Moran - Wiley Online Library

Multi-Scale and Multi-Temporal Analysis - Environmental Social Science: Human-Environment Interactions and Sustainability - Moran - Wiley Online Library: "multi-scale and multi-temporal analysis;scale, as fundamental concept in describing hierarchical organization of the world;separation between local and global analyses - focus on human–environment interactions at a variety of scales;integrated assessment models (IAMs);qualitative comparative analysis (QCA);"

Environmental Decision Making - Environmental Social Science: Human-Environment Interactions and Sustainability - Moran - Wiley Online Library

Environmental Decision Making - Environmental Social Science: Human-Environment Interactions and Sustainability - Moran - Wiley Online Library: "environmental decision making;environmental decisions - and knowledge of natural and social sciences;good environmental decisions - physical and social phenomena and human values;multi-attribute trade-off analysis;rational analysis in institutional contexts - as standard for adaptive, goal-oriented human behavior;human institutions, ways of organizing activities - affecting resilience of environment"

Crossing Boundaries, Crossing Scales: The Evolution of Environment and Resource Co-Management - Plummer - 2007 - Geography Compass - Wiley Online Library

Crossing Boundaries, Crossing Scales: The Evolution of Environment and Resource Co-Management - Plummer - 2007 - Geography Compass - Wiley Online Library: "As an approach to mediating human–environment interactions, the co-management of natural resources influences a diverse array of geographic endeavors. This article chronicles the development of the concept from its historical roots to the more recent past, where it has gained prominence as a tenable solution in situations of competing property claims and as a model of environmental governance. In surveying more that 15 years of experience with co-management, we draw attention to several points of contention or debate, including concerns about power-sharing and representation in co-management arrangements, and the imprecise use of the term."

BioOne Online Journals - Validation of a Demographic Model for Woodland Caribou

BioOne Online Journals - Validation of a Demographic Model for Woodland Caribou: "Wildlife population models are potentially valuable for conservation planning. Validation is necessary to ensure that models are sufficiently robust for predicting management outcomes consistent with conservation objectives. Sorensen et al. (2008) produced a model of woodland caribou (Rangifer tarandus) population growth rate that was recently modified and used as a predictive tool at several scales."

BioOne Online Journals - Managing Complex Problems in Rangeland Ecosystems

BioOne Online Journals - Managing Complex Problems in Rangeland Ecosystems "Management of rangelands, and natural resources in general, has become increasingly complex. There is an atmosphere of increasing expectations for conservation efforts associated with a variety of issues from water quality to endangered species. We argue that many current issues are complex by their nature, which influences how we approach them. We define a complex problem as one that varies in time and space. In other words, one answer may not be correct for all sites or during all years. For simple problems a generalized answer may be sufficient, and even for complex problems, general rules provide a good starting point."

Does formal system dynamics training improve people's understanding of accumulation? - Sterman - 2010 - System Dynamics Review - Wiley Online Library

Does formal system dynamics training improve people's understanding of accumulation? - Sterman - 2010 - System Dynamics Review - Wiley Online Library: "Research shows widespread misunderstanding of stocks and flows, even among highly educated adults. People fail to grasp that any stock rises (falls) when the inflow exceeds (is less than) the outflow. Rather, people often use the correlation heuristic, concluding that a system's output is positively correlated with its inputs."

Change resistance as the crux of the environmental sustainability problem - Harich - 2010 - System Dynamics Review - Wiley Online Library

Change resistance as the crux of the environmental sustainability problem - Harich - 2010 - System Dynamics Review - Wiley Online Library: "Why, despite over 30 years of prodigious effort, has the human system failed to solve the environmental sustainability problem? Decomposing the problem into two sequential subproblems, (1) how to overcome change resistance and (2) how to achieve proper coupling, opens up a fresh line of attack. A simulation model shows that in problems of this type the social forces favoring resistance will adapt to the forces favoring change."

ECOLOGICAL-ECONOMIC MODELS OF SUSTAINABLE HARVEST FOR AN ENDANGERED BUT EXOTIC MEGAHERBIVORE IN NORTHERN AUSTRALIA - BRADSHAW - 2008 - Natural Resource Modeling - Wiley Online Library

ECOLOGICAL-ECONOMIC MODELS OF SUSTAINABLE HARVEST FOR AN ENDANGERED BUT EXOTIC MEGAHERBIVORE IN NORTHERN AUSTRALIA - BRADSHAW - 2008 - Natural Resource Modeling - Wiley Online Library: "Here we analyze the ecological and economic costs/benefits of a series of potential harvest management options for Australia's banteng population, with the aim being either to: (1) maximize sustainable yield (MSY); (2) maximize harvest of trophy males; (3) maximize indigenous off-take; (4) suppress density or completely eradicate the population; (5) minimize risk of extinction whilst limiting range expansion; (6) scenarios incorporating two or more of options 1–5. The modeling framework employed stochastic, density-regulated matrix population models with life-history parameters derived from (i) allometric relationships (for estimating rmax, generation length, fecundity and densities for a banteng-sized mammal) and (ii) measured vital rates for wild and captive banteng and other Bos spp."

COOPERATIVE MODELING: BUILDING BRIDGES BETWEEN SCIENCE AND THE PUBLIC1 - Cockerill - 2007 - JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association - Wiley Online Library

COOPERATIVE MODELING: BUILDING BRIDGES BETWEEN SCIENCE AND THE PUBLIC1 - Cockerill - 2007 - JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association - Wiley Online Library: "As freshwater resources become more scarce and water management becomes more contentious, new planning approaches are essential to maintain ecologic, economic, and social stability. One technique involves cooperative modeling in which scientists and stakeholders work together to develop a computer simulation model to assist in planning efforts."

Improving model understanding using statistical screening - Taylor - 2009 - System Dynamics Review - Wiley Online Library

Improving model understanding using statistical screening - Taylor - 2009 - System Dynamics Review - Wiley Online Library: "System dynamics models are often constructed to improve system performance by identifying and modifying feedback mechanisms that drive system behavior. Once identified, these feedback mechanisms can be used to design and test policies for system performance improvement. A preliminary step in developing policies is the identification of high-leverage parameters and structures, the influential model sections that drive system behavior. The current work clarifies and extends the use of statistical screening as a tool to improve model understanding, explanation, and development with a six-step process."

REVIEW: The management of wild large herbivores to meet economic, conservation and environmental objectives - GORDON - 2004 - Journal of Applied Ecology - Wiley Online Library

REVIEW: The management of wild large herbivores to meet economic, conservation and environmental objectives - GORDON - 2004 - Journal of Applied Ecology - Wiley Online Library: "Wild large herbivores provide goods and income to rural communities, have major impacts on land use and habitats of conservation importance and, in some cases, face local or global extinction. As a result, substantial effort is applied to their management across the globe. To be effective, however, management has to be science-based. We reviewed recent fundamental and applied studies of large herbivores with particular emphasis on the relationship between the spatial and temporal scales of ecosystem response, management decision and implementation."

A participatory modelling approach to support integrated sustainability assessment processes - Videira - 2010 - Systems Research and Behavioral Science - Wiley Online Library

A participatory modelling approach to support integrated sustainability assessment processes - Videira - 2010 - Systems Research and Behavioral Science - Wiley Online Library: "Several authors have described the usefulness of participatory system dynamics approaches in environmental decision-making processes, particularly in supporting problem scoping and policy analysis. This paper explores how these approaches may be expanded to provide a coherent, deliberative platform, which structures Integrated Sustainability Assessments (ISA) of policy proposals. The proposed ISA framework forms a five-stage feedback and learning process including scoping, visioning, model building, simulation/assessment and monitoring."

The Future for Wildlife on Kenya's Rangelands: An Economic Perspective - Wild Rangelands: Conserving Wildlife While Maintaining Livestock in Semi-Arid Ecosystems - Norton-Griffiths - Wiley Online Library

The Future for Wildlife on Kenya's Rangelands: An Economic Perspective - Wild Rangelands: Conserving Wildlife While Maintaining Livestock in Semi-Arid Ecosystems - Norton-Griffiths - Wiley Online Library: "wildlife on Kenya's rangelands - economic perspective;Kenya Wildlife Service (KWS) and agents;Kenya's rangelands and socio-economic changes;rangeland conversion to cultivation;agricultural conversion on livestock and wildlife areas;Kenya's rangeland cultivation and property rights evolution;wildlife risk and agricultural expansion;wildlife liability and ‘policy bundles’;property rights bundle and institutional bundle;"

Models for management of wildlife populations: lessons from spectacled bears in zoos and grizzly bears in Yellowstone - Faust - 2004 - System Dynamics Review - Wiley Online Library

Models for management of wildlife populations: lessons from spectacled bears in zoos and grizzly bears in Yellowstone - Faust - 2004 - System Dynamics Review - Wiley Online Library: "Models of population dynamics are frequently used in the management and conservation of wildlife populations. They provide a powerful method of quantitatively assessing a population's risk of decline and determining the potential to reverse the decline. Models from recent studies of managed populations are presented. The first model simulates the spectacled bear populations maintained in American Zoo and Aquarium Association (AZA) zoos. The second model simulates the grizzly bear population in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem (GYE). The article concludes with a discussion of system dynamics modeling in the larger context of population dynamics modeling."

Lightening the performance burden of individual-based models through dimensional analysis and scale modeling - Osgood - 2009 - System Dynamics Review - Wiley Online Library

Lightening the performance burden of individual-based models through dimensional analysis and scale modeling - Osgood - 2009 - System Dynamics Review - Wiley Online Library: "While individual-based models are attractive for some modeling problems, the lengthy times required for simulating large populations can impose high opportunity costs by limiting model comprehension, refinement and user interaction. This paper demonstrates a novel technique for using dimensional analysis and scale modeling to reduce the performance barriers associated with individual-based model simulation."

Applying methodological pluralism to wildlife and the economy

Methodological pluralism is important when we study complex systems. We aim to show that methodological pluralism yields additional insight by applying it to a specific question: how are the economy and wildlife related in developed and developing countries? We identify three possible ingredients of methodological pluralism: (1) using both qualitative and quantitative information; (2) tapping the potential of history to illuminate slow-moving variables; and (3) explicitly synthesizing either individually or in groups, by thinking about the corresponding system.

BioOne Online Journals - Challenges in Connecting Cumulative Effects Analysis to Effective Wildlife Conservation Planning

BioOne Online Journals - Challenges in Connecting Cumulative Effects Analysis to Effective Wildlife Conservation Planning: "Wildlife populations are affected by habitat loss and fragmentation resulting from actions undertaken by various parties across broad geographic scales. One way to account for these effects is through cumulative effects analysis (CEA), a legal requirement under the National Environmental Policy Act that has been a persistent challenge for natural resource agencies."

Conservation Planning as a Transdisciplinary Process. BELINDA REYERS. 2010; Conservation Biology - Wiley InterScience

Conservation Planning as a Transdisciplinary Process. BELINDA REYERS. 2010; Conservation Biology - Wiley InterScience: "Despite substantial growth in the field of conservation planning, the speed and success with which conservation plans are converted into conservation action remains limited. This gap between science and action extends beyond conservation planning into many other applied sciences and has been linked to complexity of current societal problems, compartmentalization of knowledge and management sectors, and limited collaboration between scientists and decision makers. T"

Modelling with stakeholders

ScienceDirect - Environmental Modelling & Software : Modelling with stakeholders: "Stakeholder engagement, collaboration, or participation, shared learning or fact-finding, have become buzz words and hardly any environmental assessment or modelling effort today can be presented without some kind of reference to stakeholders and their involvement in the process"

ScienceDirect - Environmental Modelling & Software : Using participatory modelling to compensate for data scarcity in environmental planning: A case study from India

ScienceDirect - Environmental Modelling & Software : Using participatory modelling to compensate for data scarcity in environmental planning: A case study from India: "Participatory modelling has provided a new approach to overcome the problem of data scarcity which formerly interfered with the environmental planning for the restoration of the Kolleru-Upputeru wetland ecosystem on the east coast of Andhra Pradesh in South India."