Linking modelling, monitoring and management: an integrated approach to controlling overabundant wildlife - Chee - 2010 - Journal of Applied Ecology - Wiley Online Library

Linking modelling, monitoring and management: an integrated approach to controlling overabundant wildlife - Chee - 2010 - Journal of Applied Ecology - Wiley Online Library: " We developed an integrated Bayesian population modelling and monitoring algorithm to assist with dynamic cull control of an overabundant population. We describe components of the control algorithm and their combination to produce a structured, sequential prescription for implementing control of a kangaroo population. We demonstrate its application within a single management year and evaluate its performance over a multi-year horizon under a range of scenarios reflecting uncertainties about population dynamics."

Mother Pelican ~ PelicanWeb's Journal of Sustainable Development

Mother Pelican ~ PelicanWeb's Journal of Sustainable Development: "The objective of the Sustainable Development Simulation (SDSIM) is to analyze trade-offs between human development and economic development priorities. It is a global model, in the tradition of Limits to Growth and other similar projects. However, it attempts to take into account both material resources, which are limited, and human resources such as human wisdom, which are unlimited. The time window is 1950-2200, and the transition from consumerism to sustainability is expected to happen during the 21st century (i.e., approximately 2010-2100).

SDSIM is a System Dynamics model, and it is programmed in the STELLA simulation language. Links are provided to the STELLA software and an excellent System Dynamics primer. However, it is assumed that the reader is familiar with the System Dynamics method of system analysis and synthesis."

Ecological Census Techniques: A Handbook: Amazon.ca: William J. Sutherland: Books

Ecological Census Techniques: A Handbook: Amazon.ca: William J. Sutherland: Books

Wildlife Demography: Analysis of Sex, Age, and Count Data: Amazon.ca: John R. Skalski, Kristin E. Ryding, Joshua Millspaugh: Books

Wildlife Demography: Analysis of Sex, Age, and Count Data: Amazon.ca: John R. Skalski, Kristin E. Ryding, Joshua Millspaugh: Books:

Introduction to Modeling in Wildlife and Resource Conservation: Amazon.ca: Norman Owen-Smith: Books

Introduction to Modeling in Wildlife and Resource Conservation: Amazon.ca: Norman Owen-Smith: Books: "Introduction to Modeling in Wildlife and Resource Conservation
Norman Owen-Smith (Author)"

IBM Predictive Analytics Software Helps Marwell Wildlife Analyse Data to Improve Conservation Measures for Grevy’s Zebra | TTKN News

IBM Predictive Analytics Software Helps Marwell Wildlife Analyse Data to Improve Conservation Measures for Grevy’s Zebra | TTKN News: "Predictive analytics is playing a key role in helping conserve wildlife in northern Kenya. Marwell Wildlife is conducting a survey on Grevy’s zebra where local nomadic herdsmen are interviewed about their attitudes towards the zebras, what they think the key threats facing them are and where they think they are within this large area. The herdsmen have very good knowledge about wildlife and interviewing them is a very efficient means of collecting information over this vast and inaccessible area.

Marwell Wildlife selected IBM predictive analytics software to help identify patterns and analyse data which will help inform decisions on conservation measures for Grevy’s zebra."

Using learning networks to understand complex systems: a case study of biological, geophysical and social research in the Amazon - Barlow - 2010 - Biological Reviews - Wiley Online Library

Using learning networks to understand complex systems: a case study of biological, geophysical and social research in the Amazon - Barlow - 2010 - Biological Reviews - Wiley Online Library: "Developing high-quality scientific research will be most effective if research communities with diverse skills and interests are able to share information and knowledge, are aware of the major challenges across disciplines, and can exploit economies of scale to provide robust answers and better inform policy. We evaluate opportunities and challenges facing the development of a more interactive research environment by developing an interdisciplinary synthesis of research on a single geographic region. We focus on the Amazon as it is of enormous regional and global environmental importance and faces a highly uncertain future."

ScienceDirect - Biological Conservation : Stakeholder participation for environmental management: A literature review

 

The complex and dynamic nature of environmental problems requires flexible and transparent decision-making that embraces a diversity of knowledges and values. For this reason, stakeholder participation in environmental decision-making has been increasingly sought and embedded into national and international policy. Although many benefits have been claimed for participation, disillusionment has grown amongst practitioners and stakeholders who have felt let down when these claims are not realised. This review first traces the development of participatory approaches in different disciplinary and geographical contexts, and reviews typologies that can be used to categorise and select participatory methods.

ScienceDirect - Biological Conservation : Stakeholder participation for environmental management: A literature review

ScienceDirect - Biological Conservation : The science and application of ecological monitoring

 

We provide a broad overview of the underlying philosophy of ecological monitoring. We argue that the major characteristics of effective monitoring programs typically include: (1) Good questions. (2) A conceptual model of an ecosystem or population. (3) Strong partnerships between scientists, policy-makers and managers. (4) Frequent use of data collected.

We classify monitoring programs into three categories – (1) Passive monitoring, which is devoid of specified questions or underlying study design and has limited rationale other than curiosity. (2) Mandated monitoring where environmental data are gathered as a stipulated requirement of government legislation or a political directive. The focus is usually to identify trends. (3) Question-driven monitoring, which is guided by a conceptual model and by a rigorous design that will typically result in a priori predictions that can be tested.

ScienceDirect - Biological Conservation : The science and application of ecological monitoring

Ecological Modelling : Tradeoffs between forestry resource and conservation values under alternate policy regimes: A spatial analysis of the western Canadian boreal plains

ScienceDirect - Ecological Modelling : Tradeoffs between forestry resource and conservation values under alternate policy regimes: A spatial analysis of the western Canadian boreal plains An important element of resource management and conservation is an understanding of the tradeoffs between marketed products, such as timber, and measures of environmental quality, such as biodiversity. In this paper, we develop an integrated economic-ecological spatial optimization model that we then apply to evaluate alternate forest policies on a 560,000 km² study region of managed boreal forest in Alberta and British Columbia, Canada. The integrated model incorporates dynamic forest sector harvesting, current levels of oil and gas sector development, coarse-filter or habitat-based old forest indicators, a set of empirical forest bird abundance models, and statistical models of the natural and current fire regimes. Using our integrated model, economic tradeoff curves, or production possibility frontiers, are developed to illustrate the cost of achieving coarse-filter targets by a set time (50 years) within a 100-year time horizon.

BioOne Online Journals - Landscapes Shaped by People and Place Institutions Require a New Conservation Agenda

BioOne Online Journals - Landscapes Shaped by People and Place Institutions Require a New Conservation Agenda: "Landscape patterns provide a multiscalar “theater” in which humanecological interactions play out. The regional landscape context in which a new conservation agenda might be developed recognizes the fragmented matrix as a variety of patterns of not just ecosystems but human communities with various private lands or resource tenures, including agricultural and other working landscape elements. Each element of the mosaic influences other elements. Scientists from diverse disciplines are now recognizing that human history and policy are critically entwined with ecosystems and should be examined as social-ecological systems."

CDC - PHIN Communities of Practice - Resource Kit - Home

CDC - PHIN Communities of Practice - Resource Kit - Home: "Communities of Practice (CoPs) are working to strengthen the exchange of electronic information as members collaborate, share, and focus on issues prioritized by the public health community. The Communities provide a participatory environment for members to learn, share expertise, and develop solutions to improve public health’s capacity to use and exchange information electronically.

The Communities of Practice Program (CoPP), in its role of supporting the public health community, developed this Resource Kit to provide members and interested parties with information about CoPs and their function within the public health. The Resource Kit offers a program overview, templates, and guides that can be used to develop a new community or enhance an existing community. Within this kit, you will find guidance for all stages of CoP development—from planning to evaluation!"

ScienceDirect - Biological Conservation : Predicting survival, reproduction and abundance of polar bears under climate change

ScienceDirect - Biological Conservation : Predicting survival, reproduction and abundance of polar bears under climate change

Polar bear (Ursus maritimus) populations are predicted to be negatively affected by climate warming, but the timeframe and manner in which change to polar bear populations will occur remains unclear. Predictions incorporating climate change effects are necessary for proactive population management, the setting of optimal harvest quotas, and conservation status decisions. Such predictions are difficult to obtain from historic data directly because past and predicted environmental conditions differ substantially. Here, we explore how models can be used to predict polar bear population responses under climate change. We suggest the development of mechanistic models aimed at predicting reproduction and survival as a function of the environment. Such models can often be developed, parameterized, and tested under current environmental conditions. Model predictions for reproduction and survival under future conditions could then be input into demographic projection models to improve abundance predictions under climate change. We illustrate the approach using two examples. First, using an individual-based dynamic energy budget model, we estimate that 3–6% of adult males in Western Hudson Bay would die of starvation before the end of a 120 day summer fasting period but 28–48% would die if climate warming increases the fasting period to 180 days.

ScienceDirect - Ecological Modelling : A standard protocol for describing individual-based and agent-based models

ScienceDirect - Ecological Modelling : A standard protocol for describing individual-based and agent-based models

"Simulation models that describe autonomous individual organisms (individual based models, IBM) or agents (agent-based models, ABM) have become a widely used tool, not only in ecology, but also in many other disciplines dealing with complex systems made up of autonomous entities. However, there is no standard protocol for describing such simulation models, which can make them difficult to understand and to duplicate. This paper presents a proposed standard protocol, ODD, for describing IBMs and ABMs, developed and tested by 28 modellers who cover a wide range of fields within ecology. This protocol consists of three blocks (Overview, Design concepts, and Details), which are subdivided into seven elements: Purpose, State variables and scales, Process overview and scheduling, Design concepts, Initialization, Input, and Submodels. We explain which aspects of a model should be described in each element, and we present an example to illustrate the protocol in use. In addition, 19 examples are available in an Online Appendix. We consider ODD as a first step for establishing a more detailed common format of the description of IBMs and ABMs.

Ulysse: a qualitative tool for eliciting mental models of complex systems - Desthieux - 2010 - System Dynamics Review - Wiley Online Library

Ulysse: a qualitative tool for eliciting mental models of complex systems - Desthieux - 2010 - System Dynamics Review - Wiley Online Library

Stakeholders involved in the definition of managerial problems perceive and internalize the complexity of these problems as mental models. These models are not always made explicit, which can lead to misunderstandings and conflicts. This article presents Ulysse, a tool that enables stakeholders to progressively elicit their mental models as causal loop models. Ulysse uses web technologies that store information in a database and interactively display the modeling results. It is based on matrix calculation that facilitates statistical operations and provides better understanding of the model structure. Analysis and comparison of individual models reveal the most important variables and relationships among them as a basis for identifying key issues, divergent and convergent opinions between stakeholders. Ulysse has been tested in the context of regional economic development in Atlantic Canada. The tool was designed to support managers, during interviews, in building qualitative models of indicators

ScienceDirect - Encyclopedia of Ecology : Systems Ecology

 

Systems ecology is the study of the structure and behavior of complex ecological systems using a holistic, or systems, approach. This article provides a brief overview of the general characteristics of complex ecological systems and the general steps of the systems approach. Ecological systems are thermodynamically open, hierarchical, self-organized, and self-regulating. They are complex because they are composed of many interacting components whose interactions are characterized by time lags, thresholds, feedbacks, and indirect effects. The systems approach is characterized by the conceptualization, quantification, evaluation, and application of a model representing the ecological system of interest. This approach, including systems analysis and simulation, is necessary because the cause–effect relationships within complex ecological systems can only be identified by examining the system as a single, functionally integrated entity.

ScienceDirect - Encyclopedia of Ecology : Systems Ecology

ScienceDirect - Encyclopedia of Ecology : Herbivore-Predator Cycles1

 

Terrestrial herbivores often exhibit complex or cyclic population dynamics. Approximately 30% of surveyed animal species and populations undergo population cycles, with a latitudinal gradient in cycle strength found in many mammal populations. In addition to their regularity, these cycles are often synchronous over large geographic areas. The proximate and ultimate causes of these cycles have been examined in many separate systems using both time-series analyses and large-scale manipulative experiments. Time-series analyses can point to the process order of systems, with lower orders suggesting little or no time lags and higher orders suggesting significant (3 years or longer) lags between drivers and population reactions. Manipulative experiments have generally been unable to stop the cycles entirely, but can delay or lessen some of the population crashes in mammals such as voles and hares. The drivers of the cycles vary among populations, but a major trend is that of trophic interactions between either predators and herbivores or between parasites and herbivores. It is only through a mixture of mathematical analysis and experimental manipulation that we can accurately explain how cycles begin, end, and persist over several cycles.

ScienceDirect - Encyclopedia of Ecology : Herbivore-Predator Cycles1

ScienceDirect - Ecological Modelling : Multi-agent simulations and ecosystem management: a review

 

This paper proposes a review of the development and use of multi-agent simulations (MAS) for ecosystem management. The use of this methodology and the associated tools accompanies the shifts in various paradigms on the study of ecological complexity. Behavior and interactions are now key issues for understanding and modeling ecosystem organization, and models are used in a constructivist way. MAS are introduced conceptually and are compared with individual-based modeling approaches. Various architectures of agents are presented, the role of the environment is emphasized and some computer tools are presented. A discussion follows on the use of MAS for ecosystem management. The strength of MAS has been discussed for social sciences and for spatial issues such as land-use change.

ScienceDirect - Ecological Modelling : Multi-agent simulations and ecosystem management: a review

ESA Online Journals - Responses to alternative rainfall regimes and antipoaching in a migratory system

 

Migratory ungulates may be particularly vulnerable to the challenges imposed by growing human populations and climate change. These species depend on vast areas to sustain their migratory behavior, and in many cases come into frequent contact with human populations outside protected areas. They may also act as spatial coupling agents allowing feedbacks between ecological systems and local economies, particularly in the agropastoral subsistence economies found in the African savanna biome. We used HUMENTS, a spatially realistic socioecological model of the Greater Serengeti Ecosystem in East Africa, to explore the potential impacts of changing climate and poaching on the migratory wildebeest (Connochaetes taurinus) population, the fire regime, and habitat structure in the ecosystem, as well as changes in the size and economic activities of the human population outside the protected area.

ESA Online Journals - Responses to alternative rainfall regimes and antipoaching in a migratory system

SpringerLink - Environment, Development and Sustainability, Online First™

The Arctic is a region of the world experiencing extremely rapid climatic and social change. Indigenous communities have faced similar challenges for millennia and have historically demonstrated remarkable resilience to socioecological perturbations. In contemporary contexts, however, it appears that the pace and extent of change is overwhelming the adaptive capacities of many indigenous communities. Scholars recently completed a survey of living conditions spanning the circumpolar Arctic to quantitatively document the impacts of social and ecological stress across regions. The database they created is called the Survey of Living Conditions in the Arctic or SLiCA. This article explores the utility of using this dataset to compare livelihood systems across three sub-regions of Alaska and four sub-regions within the Chukotka Autonomous Okrug of the Russian Federation. The results point out that livelihood systems in Chukotka have a substantially lower level of sustainability than in Northwest Alaska due to the high prevalence of vulnerable households

SpringerLink - Environment, Development and Sustainability, Online First™