Spatial perspectives in state-and-transition models: a missing link to land management? - Bestelmeyer - 2011 - Journal of Applied Ecology - Wiley Online Library

Spatial perspectives in state-and-transition models: a missing link to land management? - Bestelmeyer - 2011 - Journal of Applied Ecology - Wiley Online Library

 Synthesis and applications. State-and-transition models are increasingly important tools for guiding land-management activities. However, failure to adequately represent spatial processes in STMs can limit their ability to identify the initiation, risk and causes of state transitions and, therefore, the appropriate management responses. We suggest that multi-scaled studies targeted to different kinds of ecosystems can be used to uncover evidence of spatial processes. Such evidence should be included in STM narratives and can lead to novel interpretations of land change and improved management.

How, when, and for what reasons does land use modelling contribute to societal problem solving?

ScienceDirect - Environmental Modelling & Software : How, when, and for what reasons does land use modelling contribute to societal problem solving?

This paper reports and reflects on the contributions of land use models to societal problem solving. Its purpose is to inform model development and application and thus to increase chances for societal benefit of the modelling work. The key question is: How, when, and for what reasons does land use modelling contribute to societal problem solving? Addressing this question, we rely on a synthesis of three studies, reported more extensively elsewhere. Our research experience, as demonstrated by the three studies used as examples, implies that the impacts of using land use models are diverse. These impacts are not limited to learning about a land system, but extend to learning about the views, norms and values of other actors. Also, land use modelling work may enhance mediation of conflicts between stakeholders and contribute to community-building.

Eric Berlow: How complexity leads to simplicity | Video on TED.com

Eric Berlow: How complexity leads to simplicity | Video on TED.com: "Ecologist Eric Berlow doesn't feel overwhelmed when faced with complex systems. He knows that more information can lead to a better, simpler solution. Illustrating the tips and tricks for breaking down big issues, he distills an overwhelming infographic on U.S. strategy in Afghanistan to a few elementary points."

Interdisciplinary knowledge integration through group model building: recognizing dualities and triadizing the conversation

ScienceDirect - Environmental Science & Policy : Interdisciplinary knowledge integration through group model building: recognizing dualities and triadizing the conversation

As part of the inquiry into managing an interdisciplinary research process on adaptive water governance, we investigated the process of group model building (GMB) and, more specifically, the role of Unified Modeling Language (UML) in this process. An analysis of group interaction reveals several tensions in the process of knowledge integration, which can be grouped into three overarching dualities: ‘simplicity versus complexity’, ‘constraining versus containing’ and ‘defining versus refining’. As group members take different positions with regard to these dualities, these represent sources of tension and potential ‘stuckness’ of the GMB. Hence the question arises how the group can manage duality in ways that take the GMB beyond its opposing forces. We suggest that knowledge integration processes may benefit from early recognition of the dualities at hand and strategies aimed at creating ‘thirdness’, including some suggestions on the concrete forms such ‘thirdness’ may take

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Modeling as persuasion: the impact of group model building on attitudes and behavior - Rouwette - 2010 - System Dynamics Review - Wiley Online Library

Modeling as persuasion: the impact of group model building on attitudes and behavior - Rouwette - 2010 - System Dynamics Review - Wiley Online Library: "Client involvement in modeling is expected to change mental models and thereby foster implementation of conclusions. Leading authors have pointed out that a lack of knowledge on the crucial elements of modeling interventions hinders accumulation of research results. There is no clear evidence for the effectiveness of group model building, and a conceptual model linking elements of the modeling process to goals is missing. We propose an integrative conceptual model, drawing on theories of persuasion (mental model change) and the influence of beliefs, attitudes, subjective norms and perceived behavioral control on actions. Our study builds on standard operationalizations and a body of research in social psychology."

Regional Index of Ecological Integrity: A need for sustainable management of natural resources

ScienceDirect - Ecological Indicators : Regional Index of Ecological Integrity: A need for sustainable management of natural resources

An ecosystem is a complex composition of physical, chemical and biological components. This complex system remains in a healthy state if the system can maintain the ecological equilibrium among its components. Anthropogenic disturbances are the prime stressors that affect this equilibrium through creating fragmentation, ecosystem sensitivity, loosening landscape connectivity and disrupting ecological integrity. As different types of ecosystem are interconnected, a comprehensive monitoring and evaluating criteria is needed for measuring its integrity at regional level for conservation planning. A Regional Index of Ecological Integrity can be a suitable approach for sustainable management of regional ecosystem.

Linking modelling, monitoring and management: an integrated approach to controlling overabundant wildlife - Chee - 2010 - Journal of Applied Ecology - Wiley Online Library

Linking modelling, monitoring and management: an integrated approach to controlling overabundant wildlife - Chee - 2010 - Journal of Applied Ecology - Wiley Online Library: "We provide a general and flexible framework for integrated monitoring and culling when the objective is to keep a species’ abundance within control limits. Our framework explicitly deals with uncertainty arising from demographic stochasticity, ecological complexity and lack of knowledge, and provides the foundation for maximizing efficiency and cost-effectiveness of control operations. Our approach could be applied in any instances where control is effected via culling."

ScienceDirect - Ecological Indicators : Modelling land use change impacts for sustainability assessment

ScienceDirect - Ecological Indicators : Modelling land use change impacts for sustainability assessment

Impact assessments usually rely on the DPSIR framework, a framework which assumes a chain of causal links starting with Driving forces(economic activities such as transport or agriculture) through Pressures (e.g. land use change) that impinge upon the States of sensitive receptors. The changes in these states, i.e. the Impacts eventually stimulate political or technological Responses (OECD, 1993). There have been attempts to assess land use change impacts at large scale, mainly for environmental impacts ([EEA, 1999] and [Millennium Ecosystem Assessment, 2003]), yet, such assessments have initially been tackled only in a qualitative manner as scenarios for future land use at large scale were lacking (Petit et al., 2001). This gap has been partly addressed in the recent years through various research projects ranging from the development of scenario narratives (Hoogeven and Ribeiro, 2007), the downscaling of global change scenarios (Rounsevell et al., 2006) and the design of rule-based land use change models driven by environmental and socio-economic factors (Verburg et al., 2006).

Cumulative Effects Assessment of the North Saskatchewan River Watershed using ALCES | NSWA

Cumulative Effects Assessment of the North Saskatchewan River Watershed using ALCES | NSWA: "NSWA-ALCES cumulative effects assessment project is intended to simulate the effects of major land uses in the watershed (agriculture, forestry, urban, and petrochemical industry) on specific watershed “values” (i.e., biodiversity, landscape integrity, water quality, and water quantity) over a 100 year time span. The assessment evaluated four scenarios of potential development:"

Ecological processes in a hormetic framework - Costantini - 2010 - Ecology Letters - Wiley Online Library

Ecological processes in a hormetic framework - Costantini - 2010 - Ecology Letters - Wiley Online Library: "some non-essential substances or environmental stressors can have stimulatory or beneficial effects at low exposure levels while being toxic at higher levels, and that environmental ‘priming’ of certain physiological processes can result in their improved functioning in later life. These kinds of nonlinear dose–response relationships are referred to as hormetic responses and have been described across a wide range of organisms (from bacteria to vertebrates), in response to exposure to at least 1000 different chemical and environmental stressors. Although most work in this area has been in the fields of toxicology and human health, the concept of hormesis also has general applicability in ecology and evolutionary biology as it provides an important conceptual link between environmental conditions and organism function"

Stochastic models of population extinction

ScienceDirect - Trends in Ecology & Evolution : Stochastic models of population extinction

Theoretical ecologists have long sought to understand how the persistence of populations depends on biotic and abiotic factors. Classical work showed that demographic stochasticity causes the mean time to extinction to increase exponentially with population size, whereas variation in environmental conditions can lead to a power-law scaling. Recent work has focused especially on the influence of the autocorrelation structure (‘color’) of environmental noise. In theoretical physics, there is a burst of research activity in analyzing large fluctuations in stochastic population dynamics. This research provides powerful tools for determining extinction times and characterizing the pathway to extinction. It yields, therefore, sharp insights into extinction processes and has great potential for further applications in theoretical biology.

Population-specific vital rate contributions influ... [Ecol Appl. 2010] - PubMed result

Population-specific vital rate contributions influ... [Ecol Appl. 2010] - PubMed result: "To develop effective management strategies for the recovery of threatened and endangered species, it is critical to identify those vital rates (survival and reproductive parameters) responsible for poor population performance and those whose increase will most efficiently change a population's trajectory. In actual application, however, approaches identifying key vital rates are often limited by inadequate demographic data, by unrealistic assumptions of asymptotic population dynamics, and of equal, infinitesimal changes in mean vital rates. We evaluated the consequences of these limitations in an analysis of vital rates most important in the dynamics of federally endangered Sierra Nevada bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis sierrae). Based on data collected from 1980 to 2007, we estimated vital rates in three isolated populations, accounting for sampling error, variance, and covariance. We used analytical sensitivity analysis, life-stage simulation analysis, and a novel non-asymptotic simulation approach to (1) identify vital rates that should be targeted for subspecies recovery; (2) assess vital rate patterns of endangered bighorn sheep relative to other ungulate populations; (3) evaluate the performance of asymptotic vs. non-asymptotic models for meeting short-term management objectives; and (4) simulate management scenarios for boosting bighorn sheep population growth rates. W"

Do males matter? The role of males in population dynamics - J. Rankin - 2007 - Oikos - Wiley Online Library

 

Models of population dynamics generally neglect the presence of males. While this assumption holds under many circumstances, behavioural ecology increasingly tells us that the presence (or absence) of males may have an impact on female fitness, and hence population sizes. Here we ask the question of whether males matter to population dynamics, operationally defined as a dependency of population growth on the relative density of males. We provide simple models, and evaluate the current empirical evidence for them, that illustrate various mechanisms of such male influence: mate searching behavior, male resource use (including effects of sexual dimorphism), sexual harassment and sexual segregation. In each case, theory predicts that males can have an effect on population densities, and in some extreme cases a positive feedback between an increasingly male-biased sex ratio and female harassment may theoretically even bring about population extinction. The results of this study, and the literature reviewed, show that the males can have a substantial effect on population dynamics, particularly so when human influences result in biased sex ratios.

Do males matter? The role of males in population dynamics - J. Rankin - 2007 - Oikos - Wiley Online Library

New directions in management strategy evaluation through cross-fertilization between fisheries science and terrestrial conservation

Meeting reports:
E. J. Milner-Gulland, Beatriz Arroyo, Celine Bellard, Julia Blanchard, Nils Bunnefeld, Miguel Delibes-Mateos, Charles Edwards, Ana Nuno, Lucille Palazy, Slaven Reljic, Pere Riera, and Tomaz Skrbinsek
New directions in management strategy evaluation through cross-fertilization between fisheries science and terrestrial conservation
Biol. Lett. published online before print July 21, 2010, doi:10.1098/rsbl.2010.0588

On 1 and 2 June 2010, an international meeting was held at the University of Paris Sud XI, France, organized within the framework of the EU FP7 consortium project HUNT, to bring together fisheries and conservation scientists to discuss a unified framework for the future of management strategies for harvested species.

Linking modelling, monitoring and management: an integrated approach to controlling overabundant wildlife - Chee - 2010 - Journal of Applied Ecology - Wiley Online Library

Linking modelling, monitoring and management: an integrated approach to controlling overabundant wildlife - Chee - 2010 - Journal of Applied Ecology - Wiley Online Library: " We developed an integrated Bayesian population modelling and monitoring algorithm to assist with dynamic cull control of an overabundant population. We describe components of the control algorithm and their combination to produce a structured, sequential prescription for implementing control of a kangaroo population. We demonstrate its application within a single management year and evaluate its performance over a multi-year horizon under a range of scenarios reflecting uncertainties about population dynamics."

Mother Pelican ~ PelicanWeb's Journal of Sustainable Development

Mother Pelican ~ PelicanWeb's Journal of Sustainable Development: "The objective of the Sustainable Development Simulation (SDSIM) is to analyze trade-offs between human development and economic development priorities. It is a global model, in the tradition of Limits to Growth and other similar projects. However, it attempts to take into account both material resources, which are limited, and human resources such as human wisdom, which are unlimited. The time window is 1950-2200, and the transition from consumerism to sustainability is expected to happen during the 21st century (i.e., approximately 2010-2100).

SDSIM is a System Dynamics model, and it is programmed in the STELLA simulation language. Links are provided to the STELLA software and an excellent System Dynamics primer. However, it is assumed that the reader is familiar with the System Dynamics method of system analysis and synthesis."

Ecological Census Techniques: A Handbook: Amazon.ca: William J. Sutherland: Books

Ecological Census Techniques: A Handbook: Amazon.ca: William J. Sutherland: Books

Wildlife Demography: Analysis of Sex, Age, and Count Data: Amazon.ca: John R. Skalski, Kristin E. Ryding, Joshua Millspaugh: Books

Wildlife Demography: Analysis of Sex, Age, and Count Data: Amazon.ca: John R. Skalski, Kristin E. Ryding, Joshua Millspaugh: Books:

Introduction to Modeling in Wildlife and Resource Conservation: Amazon.ca: Norman Owen-Smith: Books

Introduction to Modeling in Wildlife and Resource Conservation: Amazon.ca: Norman Owen-Smith: Books: "Introduction to Modeling in Wildlife and Resource Conservation
Norman Owen-Smith (Author)"

IBM Predictive Analytics Software Helps Marwell Wildlife Analyse Data to Improve Conservation Measures for Grevy’s Zebra | TTKN News

IBM Predictive Analytics Software Helps Marwell Wildlife Analyse Data to Improve Conservation Measures for Grevy’s Zebra | TTKN News: "Predictive analytics is playing a key role in helping conserve wildlife in northern Kenya. Marwell Wildlife is conducting a survey on Grevy’s zebra where local nomadic herdsmen are interviewed about their attitudes towards the zebras, what they think the key threats facing them are and where they think they are within this large area. The herdsmen have very good knowledge about wildlife and interviewing them is a very efficient means of collecting information over this vast and inaccessible area.

Marwell Wildlife selected IBM predictive analytics software to help identify patterns and analyse data which will help inform decisions on conservation measures for Grevy’s zebra."